Sunday, June 25, 2017

The Trump Dump

Outside of the casino muppet show, the commodity collapse, and the economic FedPlosion, no surprise, the fake reflation trade got annihilated this past week. Soon even stoned zombies won't be able to ignore the massacre...



Deutsche Bank (DB) downgraded the heavy equipment maker to hold from buy...Analyst Nicole DeBlase wrote in a research note on Friday that a reason for the downgrade was because of questions surrounding President Donald Trump’s ability to get a $1 trillion infrastructure bill passed.

Deja vu of 2015, the fake reflation trade is coming off at an accelerating pace even as tech stocks struggle to make a new high...














This rally is now running on Netflix





Caterpillar




The Fed is waiting patiently to see if their latest interest rate increase generates inflation...

I mean, why wouldn't it?








The Trump Dump:








Saturday, June 24, 2017

Dedicated Central Bank Muppets

One minute I held the key
Next the walls were closed on me
And I discovered that my castles stand
Upon pillars of salt and pillars of sand
Never an honest word
That was when I ruled the world

It's one thing to play dunce to serial asset bubbles eight years apart, it's an all new Alzheimer's low to play the dunce for back-to-back asset bubbles...



"Aw Fuck, is this another financial crisis? I thought the bailouts, printed money, and ponzi borrowing fixed everything"







Of course Prechter will be right in the end - just a bunch of serial clowns blowing smoke up each others' asses...



Don't forget last week's cover...





Which led to this week's risk on rally:

"It's too soon to worry about another financial crisis"




More Than Enough Clown Hats To Go Around

Can't we all just agree that only the U.S. is allowed to interfere in other countries' elections? The Democrats certainly seem to be 100% onboard with that concept. Republicans only accept foreign interference when it gets them elected, because it's clearly treasonous to elect Democrats. One thing both sides have in common is that they are both googling the wrong "R" word...




The never-ending Russia morass has both parties assiduously ignoring the Recession freight train coming straight down the tracks. One party wants to pretend that Russian interference in the election is no big deal since it got them elected and it happened on Obama's watch. Unfortunately today, Trump once again just backed over his own apologists by finally admitting that Russia interfered in the election. The election WAS rigged as he asserted, but in his favour, which makes it ok. Likewise FBI Director Comey was a great guy when he got Trump elected but had to be fired without notice when he was continuing to do his job of investigating Russian interference in the election. Because it was just fake news. No wait, it was real news but Obama's fault...

The other party of course believes that making America great again, just means getting rid of Trump, ignoring the fact that eight years of Obama is what got Trump elected in the first place. And when it comes to election interference that's America's last competitive advantage.

But the freight train of reality just keeps on rolling:

What gamblers don't want to see is banks rolling over while Financial advisors are still busy lying to their investors:




Or McDonald's peaking when every other restaurant is rolling over...




Amazon crushing the rest of retail






Starbucks rolling over with coffee



Johnson & Johnson leading the entire market




Google going parabolic and then making a lower high:




Of course overlaying restaurants with retail gets us this:


Doh!




And this:




Don't Worry, The Fed Has Implosion Covered

But it only works when everyone has their head up their own ass, which is never a constraint on their model...

Using their patented driving forward by looking in the rear view mirror economic strategy, the Fed has successfully imploded EVERY bubble and EVERY economic expansion since their inception...




Looking at 33 US recessions since the 1850s, it finds that while many pre-WW2 recessions originated in the financial sector, most post-WW2 recessions were caused by monetary policy tightening and oil shocks...sentiment-driven swings in borrowing and investment led to recessions in both eras


The Fed is over-reacting to transitory commodity echo reflation caused by global coordinated Central Bank monetary expansion during 2016:



Banks are not impressed





"Sentiment-driven swings in borrowing and investment led to recessions in both eras"



"What about internet stock bubbles?"

Those are covered too...



But the key to Fed "success" is to "not see it coming", again, and again, and again...

Nasdaq with log scale Fed rate:




Friday, June 23, 2017

The Soylent Idiocracy Has Done Questionable Things

McDonald's and Merck combined are going to kill more people than ISIS can even fathom...

Is it any surprise that these two stocks are now "leading" the recessionary market? And contrary to popular belief it's not because of automated burger dispensers. 





What it all comes down to is that the healthcare system can't afford to continue to subsidize junk lifestyles:

First off, back when Obamacare was under discussion, there was constant Idiocratic anxiety over "death panels", meaning panels of doctors who would decide who lived and who died based upon ability to pay. Never mind that fucktard dystopia, because with or without Obamacare, spiraling healthcare costs and an aging  society are a recipe for mass "euthanasia". In other words, death panels are already built into the insolvent system. Or put another way, few people who are over-indulging in the "good life" are going to be able to afford the downstream consequences of their own actions. 

But don't take my word for it:


GOP efforts so far have pointed to drastic cuts in the number of insured Americans and steep costs for older and sicker people

The only real control Americans can exert over their health-care costs is to work hard at staying in good health

In a perfect world, your retirement savings would be for travel and recreation, not brute survival


Hawley, a Republican, filed suit St. Louis Circuit Court, naming Endo Pharmaceuticals, Purdue Pharmaceuticals and Janssen Pharmaceuticals. Hawley said at a news conference that the suit will seek "hundreds of millions of dollars" in both damages and civil penalties.

Hawley said the three companies over several years misrepresented the addictive risks of opioids, often using fraudulent science to back their claims. As a result, thousands of Missourians dealing with chronic pain were given unnecessary opioid prescriptions.


These lawsuits are not going to make drug costs go down.

In other words, doctors are the REAL drug dealers





Dumb Money Encore

I'm just going to keep putting out new counts until one works. That's what Prechter does, and he charges for it...

I'm more interested in the Nasdaq 100 right now (Facebook and friends):














The Muppet Show. Is Ending...

The Fed, Wall Street, and Trump are all lying constantly. Then again, why stop now?


This week, Skynet did everything possible to keep the casino levitated at all time highs, while the entire rest of the world disintegrated in broadly ignored daylight. By sheer coincidence, the second largest IPO of 2017 priced this week, as risk was coincidentally "on" for growth stocks...

The S&P has gone nowhere for three weeks:



The healthcare sector led this week on hopes for Obamacare repeal which  in the event did not come to pass. Minor detail:



Outside of the imploding reflation trade, risk was firmly "on" in the growth side of the 'barbell' trade, led by Biotech:



The yield end of the dumbbell trade was firmly "off" this week as consumer staples imploded


Oil implosion was the big markets story of the week; however we learned today that speculative longs would enjoy more pain:




Banks were duly monkey hammered this week:



Overall, it was a week for speculation as Bitcoin ran up the right shoulder:



Biotechs led but the FANG internet stocks put in a decent show as well:


The following bellwethers tell the tale of the tape for where we are in the cycle:

JnJ had a very good week along with healthcare:


Target had a rough week


Northern Trust put in a good show for financial advisory stocks:



And yet bank stocks such as Wells Fargo lagged



Bed, Bath & Beyond imploded



Sotheby's auctioneers to the ultra-wealthy had a great week:



In short, risk was fully embraced, which was coincidentally very helpful:






Then again, as we learned with Snapchat, next week is another story...