Monday, January 23, 2017

America Last: The Law Of Unintended Circus Clowns At Work

Forrest Trump is going to renegotiate Globalization...because today's robber barons haven't the slightest clue that their wealth is solely a mirage predicated upon mass exploitation...

The dollar is getting shellacked against every other currency on the planet...Everything Trump has said and done to date has amplified global risk, and it's all flowing back to the U.S. like a tsunami...



The dollar is following Treasury yields lower, which ironically are following imported deflation lower. Trump monkey hammered EM currencies and they repaid the favour via cheaper exports to the U.S. Mexico is 30% more "competitive" now than prior to the election.

U.S. CPI (red) with EM currency:

CPI being a lagging indicator of course...




USDJPY with Treasury yields:




USD (red) with Financials




Dollar breakout was a fakeout.

Global hot money has to go home now. Overnight...




And it's all somewhat of a crowded historically unprecedented leveraged trade

U.S. 10 year Treasury speculative short futures positions:












Conflict of Implosion: "Don't Worry, Be Happy"

The Idiocracy doesn't believe in conflict of interest, reality, the truth, or anything else of value for that matter...Too busy Facebooking their favourite fake news back and forth, for their daily infotainment enema...

Deja Vu of 2008, Global markets were warning gamblers to take risk off, but unfortunately trusted psychopaths were more interested in fleecing the sheeple...

One of these is not like the others:

VIX (red) with USDJPY global carry




"Risk on"

VIX with Financial Asset Managers. I mean "Trusted advisors"




"Buy every dip. We don't get paid if you don't"

Schwab Retail Brokerage Monetizer



Banks with USDJPY





Sunday, January 22, 2017

The Roman Circus Is Ending

"Rome seeks its own glory, wars against other peoples to subjugate them, revels in material existence, lives off the work of slave labor, allows many to die of poverty and starvation, and promotes entertaining circuses and gladiator spectacle. "

Ironically, the oil industry is in the process of being bankrupted by poverty. Trump's plan is to increase supply by enabling further drilling on Federal lands while decreasing demand by extracting record capital from Emerging Markets via his impending tax cut. His plan will "work" to the extent that it does the exact opposite way that the Idiocracy expects. 

Crude future speculative longs just hit a new record this week:


Oil has carved out another head and shoulders top:


Here are some new charts I just created:

This shows the average stock as a ratio of the S&P:


This is the Russell small cap as a ratio of consumer staples, to indicate speculative appetite:


This is the advance - decline line 12 week moving average:



Saturday, January 21, 2017

Davos 2017: Self-Interest Self-Destructing

When the sheeple are free-basing junk food and junk culture with a desperation that would make a hardened junkie appear healthy, the robber barons can get away with literally everything. Voila...

FULL DISCLOSURE: were it not for Wall Street bailouts, intra-generational theft, money printing, serial asset bubbles, and ponzi borrowing, this shit show would have ended in 2008. But instead we get to endure generation Madoff making ever more feeble excuses for why the status quo is working perfectly fine. For them. Fuck everyone else. 

This week, Oxfam announced that a mere eight men now own more wealth than half of the entire world. No surprise, the rejoinder from the apologists for ponzi schemes, aka. The Economist was swift and damning, concluding that the Oxfam study is flawed, because a mere seven men own more wealth than half the world.



Step 1 to arriving at the right figure, exclude all of the "wealthy" Americans who are buried in debt, because they are lucky to be so poor. I didn't write this...

There are, for example, over 21m Americans with a combined wealth of minus $357bn. Only people with relatively good prospects, by global standards, can be so poor

No, you cannot make this shit up. No you can't. 

Therefore, in conclusion:
In valuing the poor’s wealth at $409bn, Oxfam also seems to have committed a rounding error. The figure should be just $384bn...For what it’s worth, $384bn is less than the wealth of the world’s seven richest men. There would be no need to squeeze Michael Bloomberg, the world’s eighth-richest person, into the minivan. That would leave room for the magnificent seven to stretch their legs.

Rule #1, always read to the end of the article wherein even the most bukkake journalists are legally obliged to give up their full retard assumptions and thereby admit that they are as corrupt and goddamned as the day is long. Regardless of how they try to slant the article at the behest of their corporate bitch masters. 

See fiction:




Friday, January 20, 2017

No Clown Left Behind

'b' waves are as fake as the people who believe in them...

This week was all short-covering ahead of Yellen, Wednesday, Draghi, Thursday, Trump, Friday. Now that that's out of the way...

New Highs S&P 100 mega caps:


New highs total U.S. markets


Obama's hope and change regime produced the exact opposite result, so now the reality TV messiah will make America great again by taking failed policies to level 11. You can't make this shit up. It's 1,000% Idiocracy. In other words, the trip back to the 1950s, officially begins, today:


In his inauguration speech, Trump derided Washington elites for abandoning the middle class. So instead of having Washington's political hacks working for industry insiders, Trump nominated industry insiders to run the entire government. Cut out the middle man. The de facto Idiocracy lapped it up...

Not My Anti-Christ

Trump has so far monkey hammered Emerging Markets, global bonds/interest rates, EM stocks and currencies, global housing markets, China and Mexico. This week he took down the dollar and bank stocks, meaning he is coming full circle taking down his own election rally, like any blundering clown would do...

And so far he has demonstrated a real feel for those who are doing the heavy lifting...

Day 1: I Clownius


Which gets us down to the business of this blog aka. mega crash shoved straight up the ass of the Idiocracy and their realtor-in chief at the point of maximum pain, which would be right now...

There have been 3 limit down crashes in the past 18 months: The Chinese currency revaluation August 2015, Brexit June 2016, and Trump November 2016. All bought with both hands, a different leading sector each time. Post China reval it was the FANG stocks, post-Brexit it was "low volatility" dividend stocks, post-Trump it has been Financials and all things junk.

Which means there is no sector left to rotate to, and hence the next rotation will be from stocks back to Treasury bonds and "cash", leaving a no-bid market.

This is the state of the largest capitalization S&P stocks, in order of market cap:

Apple

Thursday, January 19, 2017

The Faustian Trump Trade: "Maintain Status Quo. At All Costs"

The premise for the Trump corruption trade is to assume that someone else will always get fucked over to your benefit. And then to bet it all accordingly...

Today's headlines on Marketwatch pretty much sum up the trade:



Assumption #1: Assume that the rest of the world will pay for Trump's tax cut via higher global yields aka. borrowing costs and stronger dollar...

"The Firm's Advice: Buy stocks that pay a lot in taxes and as little as possible on salaries"





Assumption #2: Assume that intra-generational theft will continue indefinitely via ponzi borrowing aka. "GDP", while student loans will also get repaid because it's the only type of debt that can't be discharged in bankruptcy...

Student loans: Sallie Mae





Assumption #3: Assume that America's violence problem is solely a black issue. And so is poverty...

"Trump is our best chance to keep blacks in prison instead of the White House"

Private Prisons: Corrections Corp of America. What else?



Assumption #4: Assume that Trump can save bankrupt fossil fuel industries, by subsidizing a larger supply glut...

"Trump is our last chance to buy insolvent coal companies"




Assumption #5


Assume that a crass, vain, vacuous, megalomaniac is America's saviour, with Goldman Sachs running Treasury, and industry-owned denialists running everything else...






"Back up the truck, motherfuckers. In the Trump trade you get what you deserve"







Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Finish The Job This Time

There have been three overnight limit down crashes in the past 18 months, all bought with both hands. One more and the remaining dominoes fall...

2008 monkey hammered Globalization pretty good, but Bernankenstein, student of the Great Depression and master of Dungeons & Dragons, engineered a miraculous fake recovery. Now handed off to Janet Yellen, whose qualifications include not seeing Lehman coming until after it happened. Because the failures of New Century, Bear Stearns, WaMu, Countrywide, Fannie, Freddy, and AIG were not sufficient warning. It's been eight years since the middle class bailed out the Wall Street gamblers who bet against them via The Big Short. Subsequently, corporate Mad Men paid back the favour by laying off what remained of the middle class, while increasing national debt by a mere 120%.

Fast forward eight years and now Goldman Sachs is running the U.S. Treasury and the Fed is telling everyone don't worry, because stimulus is still running at extreme recession levels, eight years from the last recession. In other words, it's a scene that would make the movie Idiocracy appear sane. Fortunately, this time around, both Wall Street and Main Street drank the Kool-Aid and are now record leveraged to this fantasy. Therefore, in my humble estimation, this will be the death blow for Globalization, plus a few miles deeper from an archaeological standpoint...

Financial Advisors


Global Financials


Retail: Amazon


High Beta junk stocks


Nasdaq/Dow Ratio


New Highs S&P 100: I stand corrected, 3 stocks at new highs today...


Global Bonds



Russell / S&P ratio



Utilities and Banks


Davos 2017: "We're Going To Need Better Lies This Year"

By sheer ironic coincidence - not to visit my money - I was at Grand Cayman today, on a cruise stop with a hard luck relative who gets one vacation per year from his "generous" employer. Nevertheless, Grand Cayman exhibits all of the problems with globalized Ponzi capitalism, all in one place. Despite having arguably more "wealth" in its banks per capita than any country in the world, scratch the surface and it's still a Third World country. Why? Because the wealth is all private and its used only for private consumption by the global elite. It's also of course fully available to chase the next hot money bubble before it collapses. But there's apparently no investment in Cayman Island public infrastructure. Because that's not how the "system" works. However, contrary to the apologists for the "system", it's not working...

Janet Yellen inadvertently admitted today that this is the first failed recovery in U.S. history. Because in an Idiocracy, bad news is always good news:

"Good news, eight years after the recession and we're still applying more stimulus than we've applied during any previous recession in U.S. history"


Unfortunately, they conveniently forgot what comes next. And hence are raising rates at the very end of the cycle.

The big news this week, so far, was Trump saying he doesn't support strong dollar policy, which monkey hammered his entire Trumpflation trade put on last November. The dollar and banks stocks in particular:

USDJPY with regional banks


Wells Fargo


Goldman Dow


Some charts to consider ahead of the inauguration:

U.S. oil ETF


USDJPY



Euro



Traders' Cash commitment


Money flow


New highs S&P 100: Of the largest mega cap stocks, exactly one is making new highs now...


 S&P Hourly


:15 Minute


Saturday, January 14, 2017

Globalization: Clowns Playing God

The economics profession has failed humanity in the name of corporate profit. Today's fake wealth is measured solely in terms of how many people can be conned into believing in the impossible. At this late stage basically everyone...

The chasm between reality and fantasy has never been wider. The only suitable term to fit today's zeitgeist is 'pathetic'. Absolutely totally pathetic. As feeble as an old man lying to himself constantly in the old age home. 

Globalization represents mankind's last and greatest attempt to defy the immutable laws of nature and reality. Economists don't understand all of the problems thrown off by their vaunted system, because the majority of these "externalities" are not in their realm to judge. Globalization embeds all of the exact opposite properties of a sustainable way of life:

To be sure, there are critical aspects of this failed model that they should have acknowledged.

A true economy is inherently balanced. Globalization is inherently imbalanced. A true economy is based on supply and demand, not supply and debt. And a true economy is solvent, not insolvent. Minor differences for generation Madoff. Beyond all of that obvious fallibility, lies the human element, or in the case of globalization, the inhuman element. A true way of life is humane, not inhumane. It doesn't assume that the majority of humans will toil in endless poverty to stock the shelves at Walmart. It's scalable based on productivity, not based on infinite resources. It's quality of life over quantity of life - it doesn't assume inexorable population growth in the face of collapsing resources and burgeoning poverty. It's durable, not disposable. It doesn't assume products built to last only a few months that then spend an eternity in a landfill. It's healthy versus unhealthy and not predicated on junk food and junk culture to replace natural forms of sustenance. It's natural, not chemical, and doesn't require record pharmaceuticals to paper over its own latent psychosis. It's happy, not unhappy, and doesn't brainwash us into buying one more thing to achieve a higher level of dissatisfaction. It's responsible and not irresponsible. It doesn't expect future generations to pay for the profligacy of the current one. It doesn't conflate debt with GDP. It's intelligent, not unintelligent and doesn't require data massaging nor politicians to remind us of all of their imaginary accomplishments, as they rush out the door, handing the dunce cap to the next more oblivious clown that can be found.  






Friday, January 13, 2017

MAXIMUM BEARISH

If you enjoy being lied to then you've come to the wrong place...



This week Tom DeMark reaffirmed that the Dow will not hit 20,000 in this rally. We also learned that the lowest quality junk stocks are now leading the rally. The U.S. dollar got shellacked to a one month low. The Dow brushed 20,000 thanks to a weak jobs report. Retail stocks got massacred on news that ex-Amazon sales are imploding. Oil had a bad week on heavy volume. Record two-way Chinese Yuan volatility continued for the second week. The Malaysian Ringgit hit the lowest level since the Asian Financial crisis. The Mexican Peso crashed to a new all time low. The British pound got hammered to a new multi-decade low on 'hard Brexit' fears. We learned that China's 2016 exports dropped the most since 2009, down 7.7% year over year. Meanwhile, China threatened "Big Sticks" if Trump starts a trade war. Trump's State Dept. pick, Exxon's Tillerson shot back that China should be barred from the South China Sea. China's media went batshit. We learned that Trump is actually the Manchurian Candidate installed by the Russians. On behalf of every Latin American on the planet, the former Mexican President told Trump they're not paying for "the fucken wall". The President-elect staged a "Barnum-esque" goat rodeo which caused the reflation trade to unwind in size across global bonds and currencies, while being ignored as usual by the casino.

Amid all of that chicanery, the most speculative U.S. index, the Nasdaq made a new all time high. What else?



The reversing reflation trade was felt most heavily in the rotation between dividend stocks and bonds

XLP/TLT ratio:



The Nasdaq/Dow crash ratio: