Saturday, September 24, 2016

Preparing For The Smash Crash. Check.

3 out of 100 stocks made a new 52 week high on Friday...

Nasdaq 100 New highs 50 week moving average

For the week, the five day moving average was 5 stocks making new highs...

Last Friday:

This Friday:

iPhone 7 unit sales are down 25 percent on an annual basis, compared with the iPhone 6S of last year

2007-2008 : 2015-2016 A Better Con Job

Another eight years of bullshit is ending right before the election of the next captain of the Titanic. Like Bush before him, Obama and his acolytes haven't the slightest fucking clue what a dunce he is...

What was learned from 2008:

Mission Accomplished:

S&P 500 with downside gaps (90 dma):

Europe and Japan with S&P downside gaps:

Third Wave Down At All Degrees of Trend

Consumer staples aka. "Yield" peaked over two months ago...

S&P 500

Selling pressure confirmed wave 1 down...

Liquidity issues confirmed wave 1 down S&P...

Cash balances inverted:

Second wave short-covering very likely wrapped up this week, compliments of the Federal Open Mouth Committee...

S&P / R2K ratio:

Oil is also running out of fake-believe...

Oil volatility

Friday, September 23, 2016

Globalization Is Going Bankrupt

Free Trade is predicated upon the specious theory of Comparative Advantage: The economic fantasy that two countries will gain from open trade even when one country is far more cost competitive in all aspects. Several decades later and several thousand factories obliterated and now China is the factory to the world while we specialize in Cappuccino production subsidized with total debt at 350% of GDP. So much for textbook theories and the dunces who believe them...

Amazon versus Sears

Then there were none...

Amazon versus Sears, US 10 Year Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Global Trade (BDI), and Junk Bonds

"Fool Me 20 Times, Shame On Me"

CNBC: Sept. 23, 2016
Low Treasury Yields Are Good News for Stocks

Until they're not...

There are Wall Street whores, and then there's Jim Paulsen

ZH: Sept. 23, 2016
Deutsche Bank: It May Be Over For Bank of Japan. Stay Long JPY

aka. Short USDJPY 

"It may be over for Deutsche Bank, stay short Deutsche Bank"

Speaking of Deutsche Bank

Data released this week by America’s Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on capital-asset ratios suggested that Deutsche’s status as the riskiest of a score of big banks is worsening.

it's over for yield

Market Breadth


What happens when a bunch of fucking morons trust even bigger fucking morons...

i.e. How this was always going to end:

"No 'Conomy is good for stocks"

Thursday, September 22, 2016

"Time To Put Down The Crack Pipe" Or Not...

Eight years is enough...

Global risk markets rallied hard this week on news that the U.S. recovery has been postponed until "never"...

2 Year Treasury yield (log scale) with NYSE composite:

Meanwhile, oil is at the exact same level as this time last year, while inventories (red) are significantly higher. Inventories bottomed out late last September:

Each rally in oil has been shorter and shorter. Volume has spiked with the peak in the last few rallies...

Deja vu of last year, momentum has rolled over...

Oil with S&P 500:

Monetary Fentanyl

"Existing home sales for August fell 0.9 percent, while economists expected an increase of 1.3 percent. Leading indicators for August, meanwhile, fell 0.2 percent"

"What we really need to look for is if [bad] data released in August was just an aberration"

"Eight years of crack is enough"

Too late

"Time to put the crack pipe away"

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Eight Years of Ponzi

In 2008, Lehman brought down the global financial system via exposure to the $700 billion subprime market. Today, Deutsche Bank made a new low, having merely $50 trillion in notional derivative exposure...

Banks don't like 0%


JPY aka. Overnight risk...

Cash balances inverted



Average U.S. stock

Mind the Gap 'n Crap