Monday, May 19, 2014

Phony World: Debt IS the Economy

The Globalized Idiocracy is borrowing its way out of a debt crisis.

Wealthy nations, pretending that 2008 never happened, still augment their consumption-oriented lifestyles with money borrowed from Third World wage slaves. Now featuring a sovereign debt burden 50% higher by ratio than it was in 2007.

Which is why this will all end with a BIG FUCKING BANG.

Monetary Heroin
*No one* questions the "plan", because they are all bought in, literally. The stoned zombies are addicted to mass consumption and Central Banks feed that insatiable addiction via ever-lower interest rates, now at 0%. 

OECD Total (Developed World) Government debt to GDP
Still growing faster than GDP - and doesn't take into account state/local debt or private debt:



Unlike politicians, the Elliot A-B-C Wave doesn't lie
In Elliot Wave terms, 3 waves indicate a counter-trend correction. Which means that the primary trend is opposite of the three wave form. In this cycle, there are no shortage of 3 wave corrections taking place, however many of them are deep or full retracements of the prior bull market, which has convinced the overwhelming majority of people that a new bull market is underway...


GLOBALIZATION PEAKED IN 2007
THIS LATEST "RECOVERY" IN GLOBAL TRADE IS A DEAD CAT BOUNCE
 
Commodities - The retracement ended in 2011 and now they are beginning a new leg down.



As far as stock markets, there's no better illustration of the "corrective" nature of this current rally than the Nasdaq which still owes me a lot of money from Y2K, and at this rate, the smart bet is that I will never get it back...


We haven't looked Down Under recently...
Aussie stocks:


The Great White North 
Canadian stocks
What you would call a deep retracement:


U.S. real estate (REIT ETF)


The Canadian Dollar
Also in a new leg down...


The Euro
I have no clue what wave form this represents, however the trend is clearly down...



U.S. Municipal Bonds
Detroit may have been the first, but it most surely won't be the last Municipal bankruptcy...


The Global Dow "Reality Check"
One Chart to Rule them All - A Composite of global stock markets


U.S. Large Cap Stocks
Ok, here is where it gets fun. As we all know, the U.S. Dow has made hundreds of "new" all time highs in the past two years. One of the only stock markets to do so. So the question on the table is can a market make a new all time high and still be considered in a "correction"? And the EW answer is yes, however, only in the most lethal of circumstances, as we can all imagine...

First, some reality on why the U.S. market is alone at new highs.

The Fed-printed Dow (Dow with Fed Balance Sheet
What are people going to tell their grandchildren - "yeah, we knew it was totally fake, but everyone else was throwing their money at it so we did too"...

No one will ever live this down, especially the dumbfucks running the Federal Reserve:



Dow Transports aka. Icarus
For once, I'm at a loss for words...


The Inflation-Adjusted Dow
Morally void Dow worshippers are only too happy to bankrupt their grandchildren for a 3% gain in 15 years. 


All of this tells us two things:
First the good news: A new bear market in stocks is not beginning

And now the bad news: the prior bear market never actually ended.