Tuesday, September 30, 2014

HALO Crash Revisited

A HALO Crash is a collapse from all time highs. It's never happened before, because until now, the pre-conditions necessary for a HALO crash never existed before i.e. an entire society with its head permanently installed in its own ass, while everything falls apart in real-time:


In both 1929 and 1987, the Dow peaked several weeks prior to the crash:

1929:

1987:


Currently, the major indices are within 2% of all time highs
The potential for a HALO crash comes from indices pinned to all time highs while the majority of stocks deteriorate:

Russell 2000 Small Caps with S&P 500:
We've never seen this before (correlation bottom pane)


Even within the S&P 500 there is major erosion under the surface:
% of stocks above 200 DMA:


Advance-Decline 50 DMA
Very similar to 2011 i.e. the last significant sell-off (20%):


The ingredients are all in place, just add PANIC.