Monday, December 29, 2014

The Skynet Illusion: Efficiently Separating Fools From Their Money

CNBS: December 29th, 2014
"The stock market's unprecedented consistency in 2014 generated a trading maxim that echoed on trading floors and social media on a daily basis: Buy the dip. And traders see no reason to abandon this simple, but money-making credo in the new year."

Record winning streak, unprecedented in stock market history
The S&P 500 had no losing streak longer than three days at any point this year. The prior annual record was four days.

"As a result of the bull run, the index closed at a record on 20 percent of the trading days this year, more than any year since 1995."

The Skynet One-Way Trip Visualized
Margin debt (black line) versus trading volume (red line)


Hedging Interrupted
Index Put/Call



Oil collapse? Russia? Greece? Dubai? Junk bonds? Commodities? Bogus recovery?
It's all good - Buy every dip and pray for ever-more fools to come after...