Tuesday, December 12, 2017

The Farce Be With You

The idea of inflating risk assets while the real economy goes Third World, was the dumbest fucking idea in human history...

I read with faint interest this essay on why this third bubble is the last. It offers many casino-related theories as to why a fourth bubble is highly unlikely. I don't know anything about 'S' curves, nor do I intend to learn. However, the real reason why a fourth bubble is unlikely is political. 

Here is why there won't be a fourth bubble:



"Jerome Powell, the nominee to replace Janet Yellen as Federal Reserve Chair, said there are no more "too big to fail" banks during his confirmation hearing."

"Even the big Wall Street banks acknowledge they are still too big to fail, and markets still price them as having implicit taxpayer backing."

"Powell's statement could come back to haunt him if there's a financial crisis under his watch."





Each of the three "wealth" bubbles has generated greater and greater poverty. When the DotCom bubble crashed in March 2000 it took a full year before the onset of recession. When the Housing bubble popped in 2007, recession began a few short months later. When this bubble pops, recession will be well underway, as consumers will be fully tapped out from history's cheapest line of credit. These bubbles were only about covering up corporate shock doctrine. And as we see, eight years since the last recession and the Fed rate remains at the same level as the nadir from the Bush era:



This stoned Idiocracy is using drugs, alcohol, and printed money to pretend that everything is getting better while everything gets worse. The eight year delusion has led to ever-growing wealth and income insecurity for the middle class, despite fake wealth being at record highs. 

This week (tomorrow), the Fed has a chance to repeat its 2015 mistake of pushing interest rates too far for tapped out consumers. And as they were back then, they are totally clueless as to the consequences:



Likewise, submerging markets are feeling the effects of tighter credit:



Nevertheless, the Idiocracy at large remains totally clueless, still loading up on fake reflation. For the last time: